Overview of World Hunger

Overview of World Hunger
By Marc J. Cohen and Jashinta D`Costa

• Hunger in Industrial Countries
• Child Poverty Policies
• Government can do much to reduce child poverty:
• Countries in Transition
• Hunger in Developing Countries
• Africa
• Asia-Pacific
• Latin America and the Caribbean
• Middle East and North Africa
• The Faces of Hunger
• Poverty
• Child Undernutrition
• Micronutrient Malnutrition
• Urbanization of Hunger
• Hunger in Complex Emergencies
• Hunger Deaths
• Does the World Have Enough Food?
• Conclusion
• Endnotes

What do you know about world hunger?

Really?

Most of us have some vague impressions, a scattering of hazy notions, and possibly a plethora of prejudices.

As with other important ethical issues, we tend to shape our thinking about hunger on the basis of a few sound bites and snippets of information picked up at random here and there.

Here is a brand new, substantive, reliable, documented overview of world hunger which thoughtful people are encouraged to read. Taken from What Governments Can Do: Hunger, 1997 published by the Bread for the World Institute, this article is the first of seven chapters in a 130-page paperback book which may be ordered for $17.95 plus $3 for shipping and handling from the Institute at 1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1000, Silver Spring, Maryland 20915. It is presented in this issue of Christian Ethics Today with their permission.

There are fewer, and a smaller proportion of, hungry people in the world than 25 years ago.1 The world has enough food to provide every human being with a minimally adequate diet. In November 1996, heads of state gathered in Rome at the World Food Summit to recommit themselves to the principle of "food for all."

But over 800 million people are still too poor to afford the food they need for active, healthy lives. Widespread hunger is on the rise in Africa. Government downsizing has increased hunger in other parts of the world, even in rich nations–and hunger persists among children in the United States.

Hunger in Industrial Countries

Hunger is much less widespread and severe in the industrial countries than in Somalia or Bangladesh. But even in industrial countries, millions of people do not have an adequate diet. Children in low-income and single-parent households, homeless people and members of ethnic minorities are especially vulnerable. Widespread hunger among children in the United States is clearly unnecessary and especially shocking.

In 1985, 20 million people were hungry in the United States. By 1995 that number had increased to 30 million.2 The Food Stamp Program, the main federal government food assistance channel, currently serves 26 million people (about 10 percent of the U.S. population) per month A similar number of people relies on private charitable food assistance, provided by a national network of 150,000 agencies. A 1995 survey of 29 major U.S. cities by the U.S. Conference of Mayors found that requests for emergency food increased by an average of 9 percent over the previous year. Emergency programs were, on average, unable to meet 18 percent of those requests.

In 1994, 38 million people (14.5 percent of the population) lived in poverty. The U.S. government`s measure of poverty is based on the income needed to purchase a minimally adequate diet. The poverty rate was 9 percent for non-Hispanic whites and 31 percent for both African Americans and persons of Hispanic origin. People who are poor are those who are likely to be hungry, so it is no surprise that a recent government survey found that food insecurity is also higher among African Americans and Hispanics than whites.3

Canadian hunger is paradoxical.4 Canada ranks first in the world among 174 countries in the United Nations Development Programme`s (UNDP) 1996 Human Development Index, based on education, wealth and health. Yet as of 1994, 2.5 million people (9 percent of the populace) relied on private charitable food assistance from a network of 456 food banks. In 1992 there were 2 million people using food banks. The largest province, Ontario, had the largest number of food bank users, while Quebec, the second largest province, had the fastest rate of increase. Emergency food demand also exploded in Regina, the heart of the wheat belt, and Edmonton, capital of the oil-rich province of Alberta.

Those particularly vulnerable to hunger include people on public assistance, working poor people, families with children (especially female-headed, single-parent families with young children), single men, disabled people, Black Canadians, those of First Nations (i.e., indigenous) and Latin American ancestry, and refugees.

Countries in Western Europe are experiencing economic hardship. In France, 200,000 to 600,000 people are homeless, including 30,000 in Paris. Four million French people live in substandard housing and more than 3 million (12 percent of the work force) are looking for jobs.5 Unemployment in Germany, once Europe`s "economic engine," has reached 11 percent, about the same level as for the European Union as a whole.6 In the United Kingdom, 1.5 million families receiving government welfare payments were too poor to provide their children with an adequate diet in 1994. Poor children are susceptible to illness and even death as a result. Emergency food assistance agencies are spreading rapidly in Western Europe. But despite indicators of vulnerability to hunger, there are no systematic studies of the extent of food insecurity in the region.

In Australia, one of eight people–about 2 million–lived below the poverty line between 1990 and 1992. Many poor Australians depend on charitable food assistance, and some periodically go without food in order to obtain shelter or clothing. In the Northern Territory, up to 20 percent of Aboriginal children under age 2 are malnourished. Nationally, Aborigine infants are three times more likely to die in infancy than non-Aboriginal children.

Child Poverty Policies

Childhood hunger is widespread in the United States despite enormous affluence.

Even short periods of undernutrition can affect children`s behavior, cognitive development and future productivity. Children who are hungry are more than three times as likely to experience unwanted weight loss, more likely to have frequent headaches, and are four times more likely to suffer from fatigue and have difficulty concentrating. Children who are hungry have a hard time learning, are more often sick and absent from school and have a much harder time paying attention in class.

The Urban Institute estimates that the 1996 welfare act will push another 1.1 million children below the poverty line. Congress refused to include funds to monitor the effects of the act on hunger and poverty.

The United States already has the highest child poverty rate of any industrial country….U.S. child poverty was substantially higher than in any other country.

There are a number of reasons for the disparity. The gap between rich and poor people tends to be greater in the United States. A study of income inequality in 1995 in 25 industrial countries found inequality ratios (the ratio between incomes of people at the 90th percentile and 10th percentile of the income distribution) range from 2.25 in the Slovak Republic to 6.84 in Russia. The United States has the second highest inequality ratio, 5.67. Although the United States enjoys one of the world`s highest standards of living, its sharp income inequality means that rich people are, on average, far better off than rich people elsewhere, while poor people tend to be worse off than in other wealthy countries….7

Most other industrial-country governments` policies have a stronger effect on hunger and poverty, especially among children. Virtually every other industrial-country government assures access to health care for all citizens. The United States tends to rely on means-tested welfare programs, basing assistance on strict income and asset limits. Instead, other developed-country governments provide "universal" benefits regardless of income or wealth. Typical benefits include child allowances (monthly payments to families with children); guarantees of child support payments for single parents, either from the absent parent or the government; and child care. In addition, tax policies of most industrial nations help reduce poverty more significantly than do U.S. policies.

In France, every mother receives $2,400 upon the birth of a child, a monthly allowance of $120 following the birth of a second child, and free hospital and medical care before and after each birth. Working mothers are entitled to a six-month paid maternity leave and up to three years of unpaid leave without losing their jobs.8

The United Kingdom continues to provide generous universal child allowances and national health care after 17 years of political rule by anti-welfare state forces.

The combination of relatively low benefit levels and over-reliance on means-tested programs contribute to poverty among single-mother families in the United States; they are poorest among nine Western countries. In the mid-1980`s, the United States had the lowest levels of support for both single- and two-parent poor families among 36 wealthy countries.
Tax and government benefit programs in the United States have a weaker impact on single-parent family poverty than those of other countries. In the 1990s, these programs lifted at least 75 percent of all single-parent families out of poverty in the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom, compared to 50 percent in France, a third in Germany, 20 percent in Canada and just 4.6 percent in the United States….9

Government can do much to reduce child poverty:

The contrast between the long-run trends in the United States and Canada, which have experienced similar economic and demographic changes, suggests the important role of government. The Canadian child poverty rate was 2 percentage points above the United States rate in 1970, but 8 points below it by 1991 due in large part to activist social policy.10

All industrial countries face a growing number of economically vulnerable single-parent families, changes in the labor market resulting from economic globalization and an aging population. The costs of the welfare state, especially for old-age assistance and for education to meet demand for technologically skilled workers, have escalated dramatically.

In many countries, there is considerable pressure to reduce spending. Most wealthy nations place a higher priority on programs for elderly people than on those for children. Child care in Italy and the United Kingdom, once free, now requires user fees. Germany, France and Belgium have expanded their reliance on means-testing. The governments of France, Sweden and Germany have all sought to scale back the extensive array of social programs their citizens have long enjoyed. This has led to political protests in France and Germany. Italy is considering raising the retirement age. The Netherlands may tighten eligibility for disability benefits, while many countries are debating more modest unemployment benefits. Japan, which has not provided an extensive safety net, now faces slower economic growth, increased joblessness and substantial budget deficits.

In Canada and the United Kingdom, as in the United States, there are demands that single parents work instead of relying on welfare programs. In Scandinavia and France where single parents regularly combine work and public assistance, benefit programs enjoy much stronger political support.

But while all the industrial countries are curtailing social programs somewhat, the United States has higher rates of childhood hunger and has cut back more drastically than any other industrial nation on programs that help children.

Countries in Transition

The transition from planned to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe and the newly independent states (NIS) of the former Soviet Union has dislocated and created hardships for many people. Poverty and inequality have increased. Food prices have generally increased more rapidly than incomes, which has especially affected unemployed persons, pensioners and others on fixed incomes. The sudden dismantling of government social programs, coupled with slow development of markets and private sector jobs, have contributed to food insecurity In parts of the former Yugoslavia and some NIS countries, violent conflict has uprooted hundreds of thousands of people, leaving them at serious risk of hunger and disease.

Between 1979-1981 and 1990-1992, daily per capita calorie supplies fell from 3,400 to 3,230 in the NIS and Eastern Europe.11

Problems are especially severe in the Central Asian areas of the NIS, where absolute poverty has increased and nutritional deficiencies are widespread. Poverty rates are 70 percent in Russian Central Asia, compared to 10 percent in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

In Russia, 4 percent of children under age 2 were underweight in 1993 and 21 percent stunted (only 10 percent were stunted in 1992).12

Hunger in Developing Countries

Abdul Karim and his wife, Ayesha, and three children live in Puthimari village of Chilmari Thana, one of the most distressed areas of Bangladesh. The families one-room house, with a straw roof and walls made of bamboo and wild grass, is too small. Their skeleton-like features disclose their extreme malnutrition and poverty.

Recently, a neighbor gave Abdul five taka (about 12 cents) and a meal of rice and lentils for a whole day`s work weeding a radish field. The next day the neighbor only offered Abdul three taka and a meal, probably because Abdul was so weak. But Abdul accepted and worked from morning until evening.

Abdul spends his eight taka buying a kilogram of wheat. Ayesha soaks the wheat in salt water and fries it in an earthen pot. The wheat becomes hard and brittle, almost inedible. It is all the family has for two days` meals. If, instead, Ayesha made flour from the wheat, it would only yield a few pieces of bread. The children are so hungry that they would consume the easy-to-eat bread too fast and soon cry for more, which she does not have. Instead, she makes the meal from uncrushed wheat so her children will chew it for a long time.

Last month, Ayesha sold her gold nose pin to a neighbor for one-fourth the price her husband paid for it. With that money, the family bought some rice and wheat.13

In the developing world, millions of families face the same gut-wrenching choices as Abdu and Ayesha. Few families in the industrial world or countries in transition suffer such severe or persistent hunger.

But there is good news in the developing countries. The number of hungry people (those who have inadequate access to food, and so consume fewer calories than required for an active and healthy life) fell from 918 million during the 1969-1971 period to 906 million in 1979-1981 and further to 841 million in 1990-1992. The proportion of the population of the developing world that goes hungry also dropped, from 35 percent in 1969-1971 to 28 percent in 1979-1981, to 20 percent in 1990-1992….

Progress against hunger varied widely among countries and regions. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reports that among 98 developing countries surveyed, the prevalence of hunger increased in 39 counties, 23 of them in Africa….

Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa, the proportion and absolute number of hungry people has increased between 1969-1971 and 1990-1992. The proportion rose from 38 percent to 43 percent, while the hungry population doubled, from 103 million to 215 million. In Ethiopia and Somalia, the proportion of hungry people increased to more than 55 percent.14 Per capita food consumption among hungry people in Africa declined from 1,490 to 1,470 calories per day, far below minimum requirements of 2,350 calories. Eleven of the 14 countries where relative food inadequacy (the gap between actual food supplies and needs for people with inadequate access to food) is higher than 15 percent are located in sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in Burkina Faso and Tanzania, the proportion of hungry people decreased substantially over the two decade period. The Iringa District in Tanzania has established a model child health program, with a strong emphasis on community participation, that has achieved remarkable reductions in child undernutrition.

These dismal overall regional trends resulted, in part, from high population growth (2.9 percent for Africa as a whole) and harsh external realities (low export prices, unpayable debts and declining aid). Internal problems have plagued Africa as well, notably governments in many countries that have failed to put a high priority on meeting people`s needs. Numerous governments on the continent have been both incompetent and corrupt. In recent years, foreign aid donors and the international financial institutions have pushed for sudden and dramatic shifts toward a reduced government role in African economies. But the international financial institutions themselves now admit that their policy prescriptions have not worked well in Africa….Civil conflict and drought have further undermined food security and good governance on the continent.

The food outlook remains grim. FAO projects that the number of undernourished Africans could rise to 265 million (30 percent of the region`s population) by 2010. The International Food Policy Research Institute similarly predicts that growth in food production by the year 2020 is unlikely to outpace population growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Increased exports are unlikely to generate enough foreign exchange to import adequate food, and African countries cannot count on sufficient aid from abroad.15

Asia-Pacific16

Most of the world`s hungry people live in Asia (62 percent). Nevertheless, between 1969-1971 and 1990-1992, the number of hungry people in Southeast Asia fell from 476 million to 269 million, and the proportion declined from 41 percent to 16 percent. In South Asia, the proportion declined from 33 percent to 22 percent. Because of rapid population growth, the absolute number increased from 238 million people in 1969-1971 to 303 million in 1979-1981, but then dropped back to 255 million in 1990-1992. The proportion of hungry people increased in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Mongolia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam between 1969-1971 and 1990-1992. In some countries of the region, the undernutrition rate among adults and adolescents is substantial: 49 percent in India and 13 percent in China, for example.17

Government policies such as investment in agricultural research, rural development and public health have spurred progress against hunger in Asia and the Pacific. During the 1970s, national public policies, supported by aid donors, along with the hard work of the region`s farmers and agricultural scientists, achieved a 33 percent increase in cereal output. India, Indonesia and Thailand have extended basic health and nutrition services to hundreds of thousands of villages, with the active participation of local communities playing an essential role. In each country, this has led to substantial gains in the well-being of children, in particular.

Even very poor countries in the region have carried out effective anti-hunger policies. India has not experienced famine since independence in 1947. According to Indian hunger scholar Amartya Sen, this is due to

an administrative system which compensates the loss of entitlement as a result of such calamities as droughts and floods by providing employment–often at cash wages–giving the affected population renewed ability to command food in the market.18

More recently, Sri Lanka has managed to maintain food security for most citizens despite a debilitating 13-year civil war.19

Latin America and the Caribbean

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the proportion of hungry people was constant between 1979-1981 and 1990-1992. But the absolute number increased from 48 million to 64 million due to population growth.

Poverty is still widespread. Most governments have attempted to make their economies more market- and export-oriented, but their efforts have not generated enough job opportunities, and disparity in wages between low- and high-skilled jobs has widened.20

Middle East and North Africa

In this region, the proportion of hungry people has remained fairly stable, but the absolute number increased–from 27 million in 1979-1981 to 37 million in 1990-1992. Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Lebanon and Syria experienced high growth in per capita food availability. Kuwait experienced about a 15 percent increase in the number of people with inadequate access to food. Economic sanctions are reported to have caused substantial food and nutrition problems in Iraq, including a dramatic increase in child undernutrition.

The Faces of Hunger

The word "hunger" conjures up images of famine and starvation, but most hunger does not result from such emergencies. Instead, hungry people typically live lives of grinding poverty that make it impossible for them to meet their food needs. Hunger statistics represent quiet human suffering and injustice on a scale inconceivable to most of us. The numbers represent flesh-and-blood people who are struggling to survive against extraordinary odds: a Filipino woman, forced to temporarily abandon her two young children so she can find work in the city to pay for food; a Peruvian boy who is forced to leave school to help supplement the meager family income; a new mother in Senegal who walks for six hours, house to house, begging for the equivalent of 10 cents so her sick baby may be seen by a nurse.21

Poverty

Poverty is a main cause of hunger. Poor people often lack access to land to grow food or adequate income to buy it. According to the World Bank, the number of poor people in developing countries and countries in transition who live on the equivalent of less than a dollar a day (in 1985 prices) increased from 1.2 billion to 1.3 billion between 1987 and 1993. However, the proportion of such people declined 0.7 percent….22 Seventy percent of these absolutely poor people are women. Inequality in labor markets, ill treatment in social welfare systems, and lower status and power in the family are some of the reasons for women`s poverty.23

According to UNDP, 3 billion people–a majority of humanity–live on less than $2 per day, while the world`s 358 billionaires have assets exceeding the combined annual incomes of countries with 45 percent of the world`s people.24

As the world`s population grows at least 40 percent, from nearly 6 billion people today to 8.5 billion or more by the year 2025, the global labor force will grow even faster, by 60 percent, increasing from 2.5 billion to 4 billion workers. Add today`s several hundred million unemployed or underemployed workers, and the pressing need is to create 2 billion new economic opportunities over the next 30 years.

Child Undernutrition

Hunger hits young children especially hard. Poor nutrition during the first few years of life can result in permanent physical and mental damage, and often death.

In 1990, 179 million of the developing world`s children under the age of 5–one out of three–were undernourished, as measured by being underweight.

Seventy-five percent of the underweight children lived in the Asia-Pacific region…. South Asia`s child undernutrition rate was much higher than that of any other region (58 percent, compared to 30 percent in sub-Saharan Africa).

The possible reasons for high levels of child undernutrition in South Asia include the large population size, high population density and the rainy climate, which spreads diseases such as intestinal disorders that cause malnutrition.

Two hundred fifteen million children under age 5 in the developing world (40 percent), are stunted (i.e., have low heights for their age, indicating chronic undernutrition). The rates, again, are highest in South Asia.

An estimated 95 million children under age 15 in developing countries work to help their poverty-plagued families. An equal number are homeless, destitute "street children," vulnerable to hunger.

Micronutrient Malnutrition

Even when people are able to obtain the calories and protein they need, they may still suffer from life-threatening malnutrition. Micronutrient malnutrition, especially iodine deficiency disorders, vitamin A deficiency and iron deficiency anemia, seriously undermines the health and productivity of poor people. Over 2 billion people worldwide are vulnerable to this "hidden hunger"…, which has deep consequences. Lack of vitamin A can cause blindness and death from infectious disease. Iron deficiency is a cause of anemia, which lowers productivity by reducing work and school performance and increasing susceptibility to disease. In 1990, anemia afflicted more than half the pregnant women in the developing world, putting them at heightened risk of death in childbirth or bearing low birth-weight babies, who in turn are vulnerable to disease and impaired development.

Iodine deficiency can lead to goiter (an enlargement of the thyroid gland) and mental retardation. There are significant iodine deficiency problems in some European countries as well as in the developing world. The Chinese Ministry of Pubic Health recently reported that iodine shortages during infant brain development have left 10 million people mentally retarded, including hundreds of thousands of cretins (people with severe mental and physical impairment).25

Ironically, although the costs of micronutrient malnutrition can be enormous–up to 5 percent of a country`s gross domestic product in disability and lost lives and productivity–relatively inexpensive public health interventions can prevent micronutrient deficiency disorders. Iodizing salt supplies cost about 5 cents per person per year. Consumption of small amounts of green, leafy vegetables provides adequate vitamin A. For 6 cents per child per year, children over 6 months of age can also receive three doses of vitamin A capsules. It is likewise inexpensive to fortify sugar and cooking oil with vitamin A. Pregnant women can increase their iron intake with a daily tablet of iron sulfate that costs one-fifth of a cent.

It would not be difficult to overcome this widespread "hidden hunger." But it requires a sustained government commitment. Active community involvement–education, advocacy and carrying out of programs–is critical, too. The good news is that many governments are committed to tackling the problem. In 1995, the United Nations Children`s Fund (UNICEF) reported that 58 of 94 countries with iodine deficiency problems were on track to iodize 95 percent of their salt supplies by the end of the year. China is making a major effort to fully iodize its salt supply by the year 2000. Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Malawi and the Philippines provide children with vitamin A capsules in conjunction with immunization efforts.26

Urbanization of Hunger

For half her life, 10-year-old Bilkish has lived in a hut of black plastic on a sidewalk in central Bombay. It`s a small space, about three by four meters, too low for an adult to stand in. Nine people live there: Bilkish and her five brothers and sisters, her parents and her father`s brother. The hut`s only opening is the "door," a dirty quilt draped over a rope. There is no other ventilation or source of light, and even in the breezy Bombay winters black plastic makes a hot, dark and airless home.

Every morning at 5 a.m., Bilkish and her sisters line up at a communal water-tap several blocks away. After waiting more than an hour, they stagger home with sloshing pails of water on their heads: a day`s supply of bathing, washing, cooking, drinking and making tea. There is also a public toilet several blocks away, but using it costs more than the family can afford.

The family moved to Bombay from a dusty, sleepy village in eastern India five years ago. Bilkish`s mother now works as a servant whenever her frail health permits, which is not often. The child`s father works as a day laborer on construction sites, but he suffers from tuberculosis, a common complaint among slum dwellers the world over. His working days are numbered, so to make ends meet, the children are sent out into traffic to beg. Soon Bilkish will start working as a servant. She has never been to school.

This family`s situation is multiplied by hundreds of millions in cities throughout the developing world, from Rio de Janeiro to Nairobi to Manila.27

By the year 2025, about 61 percent of the world`s population will live in urban areas, compared to 45 percent in 1995. The urban population will increase by 1 million people per week, from 2.5 billion to 5.1 billion.28 This urbanization is taking place mostly in developing countries, where urban poverty and hunger are also increasing….

Although the proportion of hungry people living in rural areas remains high in the developing world as a whole, in some developing counties, urban malnutrition rates exceed those of rural areas….29 Slum dwellers are especially susceptible to malnutrition; in Bangladesh, the infant mortality rate in urban areas is 70 per thousand live births, while the rate is 138 in slums, where government services are virtually nonexistent. In Manila, the slum rate is three times greater than that in non-slum areas.30 In Washington, D.C., the infant mortality rate is 18, but it is eight for the United States as a whole.

Urban poor people in the developing world live in "life-" and "health-threatening" conditions in overcrowded huts that lack basic services. Miserable sanitation and other aspects of urban slums sometimes make urban health and nutrition qualitatively different from the rural situation. Strategic policies are needed to grapple with these problems.31

Hunger in Complex Emergencies

Complex emergencies, caused mainly by civil wars, are the main cause of today`s famines. These situations often lead to starvation and life-threatening disease by displacing people on a large scale and causing economic, political and social institutions to fail. These situations also intensify population pressure on available resources and contribute to environmental degradation. In some cases, natural disasters such as drought aggravate the problems. Bread for the World Institute`s Countries in Crisis: Hunger 1996 showed that undernutrition, illness and micronutrient deficiencies are widespread among uprooted people.32 According to the U.S. Mission to the United Nations, 41.5 million people are at risk of starvation and death due to complex emergencies in 1996.33

The story of Maria Ingabire Uwamahoro is all too typical. A refugee from Rwanda, she is walking with thousands of others to Zaire. Only three of her five children accompany her. She fears for the two oldest, who were away gathering firewood when she was forced to flee her home suddenly to protect herself and the younger children. The older ones may have made it to a refugee camp or may be dead. Her husband, Minani, was killed while working at the tea factory.

On the day Maria left home, she had been weeding her fields of sorghum and beans. Her farm was one of hundreds crowded together in a patchwork quilt of small squares that covered the sloping hills and mountainsides. Most of the trees that once protected the topsoil had been cut down. The family had been given that rocky piece of land because Minani was the youngest brother of eight; after the family land was subdivided, this small plot was all that was left. Even before the war everyone in the area was desperate. There was simply too little land and too many people.34

The number of people currently affected by complex emergencies declined from 45 million in 1993-1994, but it is still 60 percent higher than 10 years ago….

In light of "donor fatigue," emergency aid is under threat. The prospects of meeting emergency food needs are not bright. By 2005, emergency needs could grow to between 5.7 million and 6.2 million metric tons of food, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. When this is added to chronic food aid needs for food deficit countries, total food aid requirements could reach 26 million metric tons by 2005. But only 10.6 million metric tons of grain may be available for both purposes at that time.

Hunger Deaths35

Malnutrition is a significant factor in approximately 16 million deaths a year, or about one-third of all deaths. Particularly in Africa, total malnutrition-related deaths are increasing, and moderate malnutrition results in more deaths than does severe malnutrition. Many deaths related to hunger and poor nutrition occur beyond those resulting from the emergencies that receive the most attention. The urgent need for primary health care and nutrition–a need which governments must help address–for many of the world`s most vulnerable groups exists not only during, but also before and after humanitarian emergencies. UNICEF and the World Health Organization (WHO) estimate that 12.4 million children under 5 die annually from malnutrition and preventable diseases.

But starvation accounts for just 150,000 to 200,000 deaths a year, or less than 0.4 percent of approximately 46 million global deaths in a routine year. During the second half of the 20th century, annual average starvation deaths have declined, although the number of disasters has apparently increased. This results largely from improvements in health science, a shrinking world, due in part to improved communications and trade, and the timely availability of aid. Since 1960, the largest famines have claimed several hundred thousand lives, but not millions, a fact not well known. The lowering of starvation deaths over time may be viewed as a success of public policies, human development and international cooperation. Given current trends, starvation deaths could continue to decrease over the next decade.

However, other potential trends could cause increased starvation: possible technological and industrial disasters, genocidal activities, complex emergencies, nuclear terrorism or the breakdown of nation-states. Public health emergencies that disrupt societies and cut vulnerable groups off from support could also accelerate starvation.

Does the World Have Enough Food?

Between 1969-1971 and 1990-1992, the amount of food available for each person in the world (measured in calories) increased 11 percent, from 2,440 to 2,720 calories per day. Thus, average food availability exceeds minimum needs of 2,350 calories per person per day. In other words, if the world`s food supplies were evenly distributed, there would be enough for every human being to meet minimum needs.

But in the least-developed countries (low-income countries with a per capita gross national product of $695 or less in 1993 and suffering from long-term handicaps to economic growth), availability was only 2,040 calories per person per day…. Moreover, food availability has stagnated in these countries over the past 20 years, suggesting that poor people have not been able to increase their food consumption. In sub-Saharan Africa, per capita supplies have declined since 1969-1971…. Even where average availability has improved, averages often mask severe inequalities in access to food with rich people consuming much more than their share, leaving poor people with even less.

Total world food production continues to grow, but the growth rate dropped from 3 percent annually in the 1960s to 2 percent in 1980-1992. International agencies are optimistic that food production will outpace population growth for the foreseeable future. But other analysts, notably Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute, are more pessimistic. Considering such factors as increasing scarcity of water, the declining effectiveness of additional fertilizer applications, falling fish catches, the cumulative effect of soil erosion, the apparent rising of global temperatures and the associated crop-withering heat waves, and social disintegration in many developing countries, he fears that food production will fail to keep pace.36

In the short term, grain supplies have without doubt been declining. Stocks have fallen below the alarming level of the 1970s that led to the 1974 World Food Conference. Grain prices have risen sharply over the past year. In 1996, prices were 50 percent to 100 percent higher than a year earlier, and will likely remain high until 1997 harvests, or beyond. FAO forecasts improved production in 1996, but not by enough to restore stocks to safe levels. This will affect poor people everywhere, but especially in the developing counties, where low-income households spend up to 80 percent of their income on food, mostly grain. Global food aid has dropped to 8.4 million metric tons of grain in 1994-1995 from a peak of 15.2 million metric tons in 1992-1993.

Conclusion

Hunger has declined globally over the past two decades. But in several regions, it persists on a large scale or is growing. In order to eliminate the scourge of hunger from the world, governments must do their part–create economic opportunities, especially for poor people, and maintain safety nets for vulnerable groups.

In Africa, hunger is pervasive and increasing. This is due partly to the continent`s armed conflicts and political crises. Other factors include high population growth, coupled with harsh trade and aid policies on the part of the United States and other industrial countries. In many cases, it is because African governments are weak and sometimes corrupt.

The countries of South Asia have made steady, if slow, progress against mass hunger. Effective government programs have made a big difference for millions of people. But millions more remain undernourished, including a very high proportion of the region`s children.

In the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union and some countries in Eastern Europe, people have suffered great hardships in the process of transition from a planned to a market economy. As in Africa, armed struggle contributes greatly to food insecurity in some countries.

Finally, too many children in the United States are hungry or at risk of hunger…. This is partly due to changes in the economy. Political decisions to reduce government assistance to poor and hungry families have also played a role.

Dr. Marc J. Cohen is senior research associate and Jashinta D`Costa is an intern at Bread for the World Institute.

Endnotes

1 Unless otherwise noted, statistical information on developing countries and countries in transition in this chapter comes from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The Sixth World Food Survey (Rome: FAO, 1996). This is the most comprehensive current study of global food and hunger issues. We are also grateful to FAO staff for their help in preparing this chapter.

2 Based on a study by the Center on Hunger, Poverty and Nutrition Policy at Tufts University prepared for the U.S. Congress.

3 Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology, Life Sciences Research Office, Third Report on Nutrition Monitoring in the United States, vol. 1 (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1995), pp. 123, 125-126.

4 Unless otherwise noted, data on hunger in Canada, Western Europe and Australia are taken from Graham Riches, ed., First World Hunger: Food Security and Welfare Politics (London: Macmillan, forthcoming).

5 Scott Kraft, "Spare a Franc? Ranks of French Homeless Soar," Washington Post, August 30, 1995.

6 Rick Atkinson, "Germany, Europe`s Engine, Revs Up Jobs Losses and Deficit," Washington Post, February 19, 1996.

7 Timothy M. Smeeding and Peter Gottschalk, "The International Evidence on Income Distribution in Modern Economies: Where Do We Stand?," Luxembourg Income Study Working Paper No. 137 (December 1995).

8 Washington Post, June 22 and 28, 1996.

9 UNICEF, The Progress of Nations 1996 (New York: UNICEF, 1996), p. 45.

10 Sheldon Danziger, Timothy M. Smeeding and Lee Rainwater, "The Western Welfare State in the 1990s: Toward a New Model of Antipoverty Policy for Families with Children," Luxembourg Income Study Working Paper No. 128 (August 1995), p. 19; see also Rick Atkinson, "Mass Protest Opposes German Cuts," Washington Post, June 16, 1996; Amy Kaslow, "World`s Politicians Grope for Ways to Cut Safety Net," Christian Science Monitor, October 11, 1995.

11 As in previous FAO world food surveys, analysis of food supplies in The Sixth World Food Survey is based on three-year averages to minimize errors due to difficulties related to matching annual trade, production and stock data.

12 Joachim von Braun, "Food Security and Nutrition," World Food Summit Technical Background Paper No. 9 (Rome: FAO, 1996); The World Bank, World Development Report 1996 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), pp. 66-71.

13 According to the International Food Policy Research Institute`s Initiative, A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment; see Feeding the World, Preventing Poverty, and Protecting the Earth: A 2020 Vision (Washington: IFPRI, 1996).

14 See also FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture (Rome: FAO, 1995).

15 Mark W. Rosegrant, Mercedita Agcaoli-Sombilla and Nicostrato D. Perez, "Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment," Food, Agriculture and the Environment Discussion Paper No. 5 (Washington: IFPRI, 1995).

16 Asia-Pacific consists of two subregions–South Asia and Southeast Asia. South Asia consists of seven countries–Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Southeast Asia includes Burma, Cambodia, China, Fiji, Hong Kong, Indonesia, North Korea, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.

17 The Sixth World Food Survey measures adult undernutrition as being below the minimum acceptable Body Mass Index (BMI)-level (18.5).

18 Amartya Sen, Food for Freedom: Sir John Crawford Memorial Lecture (Washington: Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, 1987).

19 Jashinta D`Costa, "Sri Lanka: Food Security During Conflict," in Marc J. Cohen, ed., Countries in Crisis: Hunger 1996 (Silver Spring, MD: Bread for the World Institute, 1995), pp. 32-34.

20 U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Strengthening Development, (Santiago, Chile: UNECLAC, 1996).

21 "The New World Order and the Health of the Poor," Critical Perspectives in Health and Social Justice Series 2, Paper 1, November 1995, p. 1.

22 The World Bank, Poverty Reduction and The World Bank (Washington: The World Bank, 1996).

23 United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 1995 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995), p. 4.

24 Barbara Crossette, "U.N. Survey Finds World Rich-Poor Gap Widening," New York Times, July 15, 1996.

25 Patrick E. Tyler, "Lacking Iodine in Their Diets, Millions in China are Retarded," New York Times, June 4, 1996: von Braun.

26 UNICEF, The State of the World`s Children 1995 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995), pp. 12-20; "Small Miracles: World Bank Report Cites Major Gains from Minor Nutrients," World Bank News, December 15, 1994, p. 3.

27 Kristin Helmore, "Cities on the Brink Try New Tactics," Choices, vol. 5, no. 1, p. 18.

28 Untied Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 1994 Revision (New York: UN, 1995), p. 20; Michael A. Cohen et al. eds., Preparing for the Urban Future: Global Pressures and Local Forces (Washington: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 1996), p. 27.

29 Joachim von Braun et al., Urban Food Insecurity and Malnutrition in Developing Countries (Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute, 1993); Sarah J. Atkinson, Food for Cities: Urban Nutrition Policy in Developing Countries (London: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, urban Health Programme, Health Policy Unit, Department of Public Health and Policy, 1992), p. 6.

30 World Resources Institute, World Resources 1996-97 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), p. 35.

31 Marc J. Cohen, "Finding 100 Million of the Poorest Families," Paper Presented at the Microcredit Summit Preparatory Meeting I, Washington, DC, November 18, 1995; Jikum Huang and Howarth Bouis, Structural Changes in the Demand for Food in Asia (Washington: IFPRI, 1996); United Nations Population Fund, The State of World Population 1996 (New York: UNFPA, 1996).

32 Steven Hansch, "An Explosion of Complex Humanitarian Emergencies," in Countries in Crisis, p. 12.

33 U.S. Mission to the United Nations, Global Humanitarian Emergencies (New York: U.S. Mission to the United Nations, 1996), p. 27.

34 According to the International Food Policy Research Institute`s Initiative, A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment.

35 This section is based on Steven Hansch, How Many People Die of Starvation in Humanitarian Emergencies? (Washington: Refugee Policy Group, 1995).

36 Lester R. Brown, "Worldwatch Institute Urges World Bank and FAO to Overhaul Misleading Food Supply Projections," Vital Sign Brief 96-2 (Washington: Worldwatch Institute, 1996).

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